The Bay of Bengal depression is getting stronger, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has now issued a pre-cyclone watch for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts. In its 3 pm bulletin on Sunday, November 15, the IMD said the system is likely to become a very severe cyclonic storm by November 19, with sustained winds of 120 to 130 kmph and gusts up to 145 kmph.
At 3 pm on Sunday, the depression was centred about 960 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, moving slowly north-northwest towards the Andhra Pradesh coast. It is the same system that formed as a depression on Sunday morning, which we reported earlier today.
01. When will it become Cyclone Akvan?
The IMD expects the depression to become a cyclonic storm by 11.30 am on Monday, November 16. It will be named Akvan, a name contributed by Iran, as soon as it reaches cyclonic storm strength. The system is then forecast to become a severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday, November 17, and to keep strengthening into a very severe cyclonic storm by the early hours of Thursday, November 19. At that point it is still expected to be over the sea.
02. What the pre-cyclone watch means
A pre-cyclone watch is the first of the IMD’s four warning stages. It tells people in coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha to stay alert and follow official updates as the system moves closer. Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast for coastal Andhra Pradesh on November 19 and 20, with isolated extremely heavy rain of 21 cm or more over north coastal Andhra Pradesh on those two days. Heavy rain is also expected in Tamil Nadu from November 17 and in Odisha from November 18.
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea from November 18 to 21. Those already at sea were told to return to the coast by November 15. Squally winds of 45 to 55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, are likely over the southwest Bay of Bengal between November 15 and 17, with rough to very rough seas.
03. No landfall point yet
The IMD has not named a landfall place or time. Prakhar Jain, managing director of the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority, said the landfall point is not yet fixed because the system is following an unusual track, and a clearer picture is expected within 24 hours. Some weather models point towards the north Andhra Pradesh coast, while others pull the track further south, towards northern Tamil Nadu.
If Akvan crosses the Andhra Pradesh coast, it would be the third cyclonic storm from the Bay of Bengal to do so in 20 days, after Cyclone Arnab in late October and Cyclone Murasu in early November, when coastal districts were still recovering.
04. What happens next
The next key moment is 11.30 am on Monday, November 16, when the IMD expects the depression to become Cyclone Akvan. Watch for the IMD’s fresh bulletins through the day for the track, the landfall area and updated rainfall warnings. People in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha should keep emergency supplies ready, stay away from the sea, and follow instructions from local disaster management authorities.
Sources: India Meteorological Department bulletins; Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority. Read our earlier report: Depression Forms Over Bay of Bengal, Likely to Become Severe Cyclone Akvan by November 17. IMD updates: mausam.imd.gov.in.
